Objective: COVID-19 has spread worldwide and made a huge influence across the world. Modeling the infectious spread situation of COVID-19 is essential to understand the current condition and to formulate intervention measurements. Epidemiological equations based on the SEIR model simulate disease development. The traditional parameter estimation method to solve SEIR equations could not precisely fit real-world data due to different situations, such as social distancing policies and intervention strategies. Additionally, learning-based models achieve outstanding fitting performance, but cannot visualize mechanisms. Methods: Thus, we propose a deep dynamic epidemiological (DDE) method that combines epidemiological equations and deep-learning advantages to obtain high accuracy and visualization. The DDE contains deep networks to fit the effect function to simulate the ever-changing situations based on the neural ODE method in solving variants' equations, ensuring the fitting performance of multi-level areas. Results: We introduce four SEIR variants to fit different situations in different countries and regions. We compare our DDE method with traditional parameter estimation methods (Nelder-Mead, BFGS, Powell, Truncated Newton Conjugate-Gradient, Neural ODE) in fitting the real-world data in the cases of countries (the USA, Columbia, South Africa) and regions (Wuhan in China, Piedmont in Italy). Our DDE method achieves the best Mean Square Error and Pearson coefficient in all five areas. Further, compared with the state-of-art learning-based approaches, the DDE outperforms all techniques, including LSTM, RNN, GRU, Random Forest, Extremely Random Trees, and Decision Tree. Conclusion: DDE presents outstanding predictive ability and visualized display of the changes in infection rates in different regions and countries.

Deep learning (DL) is gaining popularity as a parameter estimation method for quantitative MRI. A range of competing implementations have been proposed, relying on either supervised or self-supervised learning. Self-supervised approaches, sometimes referred to as unsupervised, have been loosely based on auto-encoders, whereas supervised methods have, to date, been trained on groundtruth labels. These two learning paradigms have been shown to have distinct strengths. Notably, self-supervised approaches have offered lower-bias parameter estimates than their supervised alternatives. This result is counterintuitive - incorporating prior knowledge with supervised labels should, in theory, lead to improved accuracy. In this work, we show that this apparent limitation of supervised approaches stems from the naive choice of groundtruth training labels. By training on labels which are deliberately not groundtruth, we show that the low-bias parameter estimation previously associated with self-supervised methods can be replicated - and improved on - within a supervised learning framework. This approach sets the stage for a single, unifying, deep learning parameter estimation framework, based on supervised learning, where trade-offs between bias and variance are made by careful adjustment of training label.

For many applications it is critical to know the uncertainty of a neural network's predictions. While a variety of neural network parameter estimation methods have been proposed for uncertainty estimation, they have not been rigorously compared across uncertainty measures. We assess four of these parameter estimation methods to calibrate uncertainty estimation using four different uncertainty measures: entropy, mutual information, aleatoric uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty. We also evaluate their calibration using expected calibration error. We additionally propose a novel method of neural network parameter estimation called RECAST, which combines cosine annealing with warm restarts with Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics, capturing more diverse parameter distributions. When benchmarked against mutilated data from MNIST, we show that RECAST is well-calibrated and when combined with predictive entropy and epistemic uncertainty it offers the best calibrated measure of uncertainty when compared to recent methods.

We describe a new iterative method for parameter estimation of Gaussian mixtures.The new method is based on a framework developed by Kivinen and Warmuth for supervised online learning. In contrast to gradient descentand EM, which estimate the mixture's covariance matrices, the proposed method estimates the inverses of the covariance matrices. Furthennore, the new parameter estimation procedure can be applied in both online and batch settings. We show experimentally that it is typically fasterthan EM, and usually requires about half as many iterations as EM. 1 Introduction Mixture models, in particular mixtures of Gaussians, have been a popular tool for density estimation, clustering, and unsupervised learning with a wide range of applications (see for instance [5, 2] and the references therein). Mixture models are one of the most useful tools for handling incomplete data, in particular hidden variables.

We describe a new iterative method for parameter estimation of Gaussian mixtures. The new method is based on a framework developed by Kivinen and Warmuth for supervised online learning. In contrast to gradient descent and EM, which estimate the mixture's covariance matrices, the proposed method estimates the inverses of the covariance matrices. Furthennore, the new parameter estimation procedure can be applied in both online and batch settings. We show experimentally that it is typically faster than EM, and usually requires about half as many iterations as EM.